By late 2025 the Starship program’s centre of gravity feels like Ship heat shield and the orbital path getting real — tiles, plasma, repeat entries, and flight profiles that look less like prototypes apologising and more like a vehicle clocking in. Super Heavy reuse bought the booster half of the thesis; the Ship still has to become something you would trust with cargo and, eventually, crew.
IPO chatter is loud enough now that even cautious people are using calendar words instead of only wink emojis. I am treating it as chatter until there is a prospectus and a price, but I am also allowing myself to hope. The mid-2021 wish to buy SpaceX like Tesla has been waiting for a door like this.
Light calendar texture: Tesla still compounding, xAI still training toward the same hard-problem habit, Boring Company still digging where cities let it. None of them replace Starship. They just prove the founder pattern did not expire.
I want orbital reliability more than I want a ticker, if I am forced to rank them. A ticker without a freighter is a meme. A freighter that can fly often is civilisation infrastructure. Ideally we get both.
If the chatter turns into a deal, the next post writes itself: IPO day, allocation lottery for an Australian retail path, and whether Starlink stays inside the house. Next up: SPCX — priced, trading, and the thin allocation that still has me buzzing.